My forecast is for U.S. economic growth to slow in the 2nd half (a sluggish and choppy recovery), but not slide into recession. However a recession is a possibility, and the following describes how NBER differentiates between a “double dip” and a new recession.
The Japanese Yen experienced one of its most bullish trading days in recent weeks on Tuesday. The JPY made significant gains against many of its most traded currency pairs, such as the GBP, and EUR. Daily Forex Tips The price of crude oil fell 3% to $68.20 yesterday, extending hefty losses from the previous session as economic concerns sent investors into safer havens, outweighing positive U.S.
Click on map for larger image. Here is a map of the three month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. Forty six states are showing declining three month activity.
The Greenback Will Dominate Today’s Trading. Today’s U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change data release is set to dominate the trading between the Dollar and its major currency pairs
The dollar was slightly more volatile over the past week than usual, and the explanations for this have been getting trickier by the day. As for this week, forex traders are advised to take positions on trades, as a string of data releases coming out of Unites States, Europe and Japan are likely to affect the greenback’s main currency crosses. The U.S dollar had risen on Friday, against most major currencies amid fears of weak U.S
Market Expects Low Volatility Today There is likely to be less volatility in the market today with almost no market moving data on tap from Europe and Unites States. Yet, the few fundamental events that are due out later today may indeed create a remarkable wave in the market, especially towards the late afternoon hours. 12:30 GMT: CAD - Canadian Core Retail Sales - It reflects the change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles
8:30 GMT: GBP - Consumer Inflation Expectations - This indicator reflects the percentage that consumers expect the price of goods and services to change during the next 12 months - Expectations of future inflation can manifest into real inflation, primarily because workers tend to push for higher wages when they believe prices will rise.
8:30 GMT: GBP - Manufacturing Production - This indicator reflects the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers.
After depreciating consistently over the past few weeks, the USD is now traded over 1.41 against the EUR, and over 1.62 against the GBP. This week on Thursday, at 11.45 GMT, the ECB will deliver its periodical Interest Rates statement.
